Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 140,840
2 Rhode Island 139,609
3 South Dakota 138,507
4 Utah 123,847
5 Tennessee 121,816
6 Arizona 118,379
7 Iowa 115,520
8 Nebraska 113,501
9 Wisconsin 113,322
10 Oklahoma 113,200
11 South Carolina 112,173
12 New Jersey 112,063
13 Arkansas 111,183
14 Alabama 107,585
15 Indiana 107,283
16 Delaware 106,841
17 Kansas 106,631
18 Illinois 105,395
19 New York 104,995
20 Idaho 104,964
21 Mississippi 104,717
22 Florida 103,744
23 Nevada 102,244
24 Minnesota 101,785
25 Montana 101,773
26 Georgia 101,191
27 Wyoming 100,333
28 Kentucky 100,001
29 Massachusetts 99,766
30 Texas 99,688
31 Louisiana 98,497
32 Missouri 97,781
33 Connecticut 94,928
34 California 94,644
35 New Mexico 94,164
36 Michigan 93,320
37 North Carolina 92,921
38 Alaska 92,213
39 Ohio 91,604
40 Pennsylvania 89,969
41 Colorado 88,893
42 West Virginia 85,223
43 Virginia 77,129
44 Maryland 73,878
45 New Hampshire 69,629
46 District of Columbia 67,465
47 Washington 52,999
48 Puerto Rico 51,440
49 Maine 45,338
50 Oregon 43,584
51 Vermont 36,577
52 Hawaii 23,010

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 454
2 Colorado 369
3 Rhode Island 294
4 Pennsylvania 275
5 Minnesota 266
6 Florida 250
7 New Jersey 243
8 Maine 233
9 Illinois 229
10 Alaska 223
11 North Dakota 213
12 Delaware 198
13 West Virginia 197
14 Massachusetts 192
15 Oregon 191
16 Washington 186
17 New Hampshire 181
18 North Carolina 180
19 New York 174
20 Indiana 172
21 Montana 170
22 South Dakota 170
23 Kentucky 166
24 Tennessee 164
25 Puerto Rico 153
26 Wisconsin 152
27 Maryland 145
28 Ohio 144
29 Wyoming 144
30 Connecticut 141
31 Iowa 139
32 Nevada 135
33 Texas 135
34 Utah 135
35 Virginia 133
36 Idaho 131
37 South Carolina 131
38 Georgia 130
39 Nebraska 125
40 Missouri 119
41 District of Columbia 111
42 Vermont 110
43 Louisiana 104
44 Arizona 99
45 New Mexico 95
46 Arkansas 83
47 Alabama 79
48 Mississippi 74
49 Kansas 72
50 Oklahoma 55
51 Hawaii 54
52 California 44

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,874
2 New York 2,656
3 Massachusetts 2,552
4 Rhode Island 2,519
5 Mississippi 2,417
6 Arizona 2,377
7 Connecticut 2,267
8 Louisiana 2,231
9 Alabama 2,220
10 South Dakota 2,217
11 Pennsylvania 2,049
12 North Dakota 1,997
13 Indiana 1,979
14 New Mexico 1,936
15 Illinois 1,913
16 Arkansas 1,900
17 Iowa 1,879
18 Michigan 1,872
19 South Carolina 1,844
20 Georgia 1,839
21 Nevada 1,772
22 Tennessee 1,770
23 Texas 1,736
24 Kansas 1,723
25 Oklahoma 1,715
26 Delaware 1,667
27 Ohio 1,641
28 Florida 1,633
29 District of Columbia 1,565
30 California 1,560
31 Missouri 1,505
32 West Virginia 1,492
33 Kentucky 1,479
34 Montana 1,468
35 Maryland 1,442
36 Wisconsin 1,295
37 Minnesota 1,280
38 Virginia 1,259
39 Nebraska 1,222
40 Wyoming 1,221
41 North Carolina 1,206
42 Idaho 1,146
43 Colorado 1,115
44 New Hampshire 956
45 Washington 726
46 Puerto Rico 718
47 Utah 685
48 Oregon 594
49 Maine 581
50 Alaska 451
51 Vermont 394
52 Hawaii 339

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 8
2 Oklahoma 6
3 Georgia 4
4 New Jersey 4
5 New Mexico 4
6 Pennsylvania 4
7 South Carolina 4
8 Minnesota 3
9 New Hampshire 3
10 Puerto Rico 3
11 Wisconsin 3
12 Alabama 2
13 Delaware 2
14 District of Columbia 2
15 Florida 2
16 Idaho 2
17 Illinois 2
18 Indiana 2
19 Kentucky 2
20 Louisiana 2
21 Maine 2
22 Maryland 2
23 Missouri 2
24 Montana 2
25 Nevada 2
26 New York 2
27 North Carolina 2
28 North Dakota 2
29 Texas 2
30 Arizona 1
31 Arkansas 1
32 California 1
33 Colorado 1
34 Connecticut 1
35 Hawaii 1
36 Kansas 1
37 Massachusetts 1
38 Mississippi 1
39 Ohio 1
40 Rhode Island 1
41 Tennessee 1
42 Utah 1
43 Vermont 1
44 Virginia 1
45 Washington 1
46 Wyoming 1
47 Alaska 0
48 Iowa 0
49 Nebraska 0
50 Oregon 0
51 South Dakota 0
52 West Virginia -27

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 361,511 1 99
Crowley Colorado 357,862 2 99
Bent Colorado 272,548 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 248,133 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,700 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 141,355 186 94
Richland South Carolina 110,302 996 68
York South Carolina 108,538 1063 66
Orange California 85,025 2171 30
Pierce Washington 53,991 2875 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,035 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,558 1824 41
York South Carolina 1,342 2073 34
Davidson Tennessee 1,341 2075 33
Richland South Carolina 1,311 2109 32
Pierce Washington 714 2742 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons